Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in the European Union: The Role of Entrepreneurship
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2025.08.03(2)Keywords:
sustainable development, entrepreneurship, business regulation, market openness, digital transformation, institutional quality, strategic foresightAbstract
Sustainable development has become a strategic priority for the European Union (EU), requiring coordinated institutional, economic and entrepreneurial transformations. While a growing body of literature recognises entrepreneurship as an important mechanism for advancing sustainability objectives, empirical evidence on how structural features of the business environment influence sustainability trajectories at the macroeconomic level remains fragmented. In particular, the dynamic relationships among sustainable development, business regulation and market openness across EU countries remain insufficiently understood. The objective of this study is to analyse how business regulation and market openness influence entrepreneurship-driven progress towards sustainable development in the European Union and to examine the dynamic interactions among these institutional and economic dimensions. The empirical analysis employs an annual panel dataset covering 27 EU member states for the period 2010–2024. The study applies a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) framework combined with Granger causality testing and impulse response analysis to capture short-run and long-run relationships among sustainable development, regulatory quality and market openness. The results reveal strong persistence and path dependence in sustainable development trajectories. Business regulation does not exert statistically significant short-term effects on sustainability outcomes. Conversely, sustainable development Granger-causes changes in regulatory quality, indicating feedback processes in which sustainability progress stimulates institutional adaptation. Market openness demonstrates the strongest long-term positive effect on sustainability, although short-term impacts appear negative, reflecting transitional adjustment costs. These findings suggest that sustainable development, regulatory quality and market openness form a dynamically interconnected system characterised by temporal asymmetries and feedback effects. The results highlight the importance of gradual, learning-based regulatory reforms and deeper integration into global innovation and investment networks to support sustainable entrepreneurial ecosystems in the European Union. The study also acknowledges limitations related to the selected indicators and modelling framework, which provide avenues for further research.
Downloads
References
1. Agrawal, A., Sharma, A. J., & Sarkar, B. D. (2025). Business Strategies for Sustainable Development: Leveraging Industry 5.0 and Circular Pharmaceutical Supply Chains to Overcome Medicine Waste. Business Strategy and the Environment, 34(4), 4291–4311. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.4202
2. Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Ivaniuta, S., Sukhodolia, O., & Czart, P. (2025). System of indicators for the environmental component of sustainable development in the security dimension. Sustainable Development, 33(S1), 146-160. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70000
3. Masanpally, M., Bhattacharjee, T., & Butt, T. E. (2025). Sustainable development goals and the implications of business responsibility. Environmental Progress and Sustainable Energy, 44(1) Article e14517. https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.14517
4. Thammaraksa, C., Gebara, C. H., Hauschild, M. Z., Aggestam-Pontoppidan, C., & Laurent, A. (2024). Business reporting of Sustainable Development Goals: Global trends and implications. Business Strategy and the Environment, 33(6), 5445–5462. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.3760
5. Ebekozien, A., Thwala, D. W., & Samsurijan, M. S. (2025). Appraising circular economy business model adoption in construction projects to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 11. International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBPA-10-2024-0217
6. Severo, E. A., & Dorion, E. C. H. (2025). The Impact of Innovation, Circular Economy and Sustainable Development Strategies Aimed at Low-carbon Economy on Brazilian Business Performance. Circular Economy and Sustainability, 5(2), 777–796. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-024-00450-x
7. Kharazishvili, Y., & Kwilinski, A. (2022). Methodology for Determining the Limit Values of National Security Indicators Using Artificial Intelligence Methods. Virtual Economics, 5(4), 7–26. https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2022.05.04(1)
8. Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2024). Sustainable development in the European Union: Managing artificial intelligence technology for green economic growth. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 30(1), 187–207. https://doi.org/10.17512/pjms.2024.30.1.11
9. Estácio, R., Campos, S., Correia, R. J., & Teixeira, M. S. (2025). Business model innovations and their relationship with sustainable development in agribusiness: a bibliometric analysis. International Journal on Food System Dynamics, 16(1), 13–28. https://doi.org/10.18461/ijfsd.v16i1o2
10. Janoskova, P., Bajza, F., Repkova Štofkova, K., Štofková, Z., & Loučanová, E. (2024). Business Models of Public Smart Services for Sustainable Development. Sustainability (Switzerland), 16(17), Article 7420. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177420
11. Kordi, G., & Salo, J. (2025). Business Model Innovation for Sustainable Development: Evidence from the Forest Mapping Technology Sector in Finland. Business Strategy and Development, 8(3), Article e70214. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsd2.70214
12. Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Dźwigoł, H., & Dźwigoł-Barosz, M. (2021). Modelling innovation contribution to economic growth of industrial regions. Conference Proceedings Determinants of Regional Development, 2, 558–578. https://doi.org/10.14595/CP/02/035
13. Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Dzwigol, H., & Liashenko, V. (2021). Strategic European integration scenarios of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces. Virtual Economics, 4(2), 7–40. https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2021.04.02(1)
14. Ooi, S. K., Yang, S., & Adeneye, Y. B. (2025). Sustainable development practices as a mediator: linking entrepreneurial orientation to SME business performance. Asian Journal of Business Ethics, 14(1), 177–201. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13520-025-00233-z
15. Shah, N., Bhatti, M. K., Saraih, U. N., Abdelwahed, N. A. A., & Soomro, B. A. (2024). The achievement of sustainable development and business success through rational management decision-making in a circular economy. International Journal of Innovation Science, 16(5), 956–980. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJIS-02-2023-0043
16. Guruprasad, L. S., K.r.a, B., Kumar, R. G., Bhat, P. K., & Satya Nandini, A. (2024). Corporate social responsibility and sustainable development goals: evidence from responsible business leaders. Journal of Global Responsibility, 15(4), 409–435. https://doi.org/10.1108/JGR-06-2023-0109
17. Sajjad, A., Pham, M. H., & Nguyen, H. (2024). Guest editorial: Creating business and societal value through sustainable development goals in times of crisis. Corporate Governance (Bingley), 24(3), 485–488. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-05-2024-580
18. Aldrou, K. K. A. R. (2024). Administrative Law in Sustainable Development: A Case Study of the Interaction Between Eco-Business and Government in Jordan. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 19(5), 1817–1825. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.190519
19. Drobot, E. v., Petrenko, Y., Hajduk, Ľ., & Bencic, S. (2024). The concept of business ethics circles in the context of sustainable development. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(7), Article 5162. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i7.5162
20. Dzwigol, H., Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2023). The Role of Environmental Regulations, Renewable Energy, and Energy Efficiency in Finding the Path to Green Economic Growth. Energies, 16(7), Article 3090. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16073090
21. Dzwigol, H., Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2023). Renewable Energy, Knowledge Spillover and Innovation: Capacity of Environmental Regulation. Energies, 16(3), Article 1117. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16031117
22. Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Sukhodolia, O., Dzwigol, H., Bobro, D., & Kotowicz, J. (2021). The Systemic Approach for Estimating and Strategising Energy Security: The Case of Ukraine. Energies, 14(8), Article 2126. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14082126
23. Yasmeen, R., & Hassan Shah, W. U. (2025). Impact of business cycles on energy poverty: Exploring the significance with sustainable development goals in newly industrialised economies. Applied Energy, 378(Part A), Article 124777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124777
24. Verma, P., Raghuwanshi, S., Mishra, E., Mishra, A., & Khare, V. K. (2024). How Do the Socioeconomic Characteristics of Individual Members Influence the Business Effectiveness and Performance of Self-help Groups with Concerning Sustainable Development Goals: An SEM Approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 14(6), 121–127. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.17101
25. Cyfert, S., Górka, J., Piórkowska, K., Dyduch, W., Glabiszewski, W., & Batko, R. (2024). Shaping sustainable development of tomorrow: Generation Z competencies, green consumption values and the role of knowledge acquisition sources. Central European Management Journal, 33(5), 719–735. https://doi.org/10.1108/CEMJ-07-2024-0213
26. Karimi, M. S., Ghavidel Doostkouei, S., Sharaf Shaiban, M. S. M., Easvaralingam, Y., & Khan, Y. A. (2024). Investigating the role of entrepreneurship in advancing renewable energy for sustainable development: Evidence from a System-GMM panel data approach. Sustainable Development, 32(4), 3329–3343. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2847
27. Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., & Kwilinski, A. (2025). Digital inclusion for a sustainable future: Catalysing green economic growth. Sustainable Futures, 10, Article 101037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101037
28. Omri, A., & Almoshaigeh, M. (2025). Strengthening Sustainable Development Through Innovation-Led and Financially Supported Entrepreneurship. Sustainable Development, 33(6), 8737-8767. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70124
29. Sui, L., Mollick, A. V., & Wu, S. (2025). The effect of necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship and SME financing on sustainable development. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06043-4
30. Kwilinski, A. (2023). E-commerce and sustainable development in the European Union: A comprehensive analysis of SDG2, SDG12, and SDG13. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 11(3), 87–107. https://doi.org/10.23762/FSO_VOL11_NO3_5
31. Dzwigol, H., Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2024). Digitalisation and Energy in Attaining Sustainable Development: Impact on Energy Consumption, Energy Structure, and Energy Intensity. Energies, 17(5), Article 1213. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17051213
32. Mondal, S., Singh, S., & Gupta, H. (2024). Examining the impact of green entrepreneurship drivers on sustainable development in the context of emerging country. Benchmarking. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-11-2023-0835
33. Soomro, B. A., Moawad, N. F., Saraih, U. N., Abdelwahed, N. A. A., & Shah, N. (2024). Going green with the green market and green innovation: building the connection between green entrepreneurship and sustainable development. Kybernetes, 53(4), 1484–1504. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-09-2022-1353
34. Rodríguez-Peña, A. (2025). Corporate entrepreneurship and the sustainable development goals: exploring the connection. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 14, Article 33. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-025-00481-0
35. Yoon, S., & Ho, J. Y. (2025). Delivering sustainable development via social innovation: Cases of social entrepreneurship in South Korea and Singapore. Sustainable Development, 33(1), 416–430. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3127
36. Navin, Y., Ayyagari, L. R., & Rajan, A. (2025). Balancing growth and green goals: financial access, entrepreneurship, and sustainable development in the BRICS economies. Discover Sustainability, 6, Article 708. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01625-8
37. Yin, X., Yuan, Y., & Zhou, J. (2024). Evaluation and optimisation of business environment based on sustainable development perspective: Exploring the role of the reform of government functions. Sustainable Development, 32(1), 138–152. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2655
38. Nie, R., Long, Y., Deng, Q., Wu, L., & Pang, H. (2025). Institutional synergy for green growth: Decoding GTFP’s complex mediation between business environment and sustainable development. Journal of Environmental Management, 391, Article 126365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126365
39. Zarubina, V. R., Zarubin, M. Y., Yessenkulova, Z., Gumarova, T., Daulbayeva, A., Meimankulova, Z. Z., & Kurmangalieva, A. (2024). Sustainable Development of Small Business in Kazakhstan. Economies, 12(9), Article 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090247
40. Rauf, R., Mardia, M., Raheni, C., Hannase, U., & Tafsir, M. (2025). Entrepreneurship for Sustainable Development. World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 21(2), 149–164. https://doi.org/10.47556/J.WJEMSD.21.2.2025.4
41. Koundouri, P. C., Landis, C. F. M., Dellis, K., & Plataniotis, A. (2025). Integrating Sustainable Development Goals in Environmental, Social, and Governance Criteria and the Sustainability Transformation of the EU Business Sector. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 17(1), 381–399. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-010224-080807
42. Rotmans, J., Kemp, R., & Van Asselt, M. (2001). More evolution than revolution: Transition management in public policy. Foresight, 3(1), 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680110803003
43. Porter, A. L. (2010). Technology foresight: Types and methods. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 6(1–3), 36–45. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2010.032664
44. Saritas, O. (2013). Systemic foresight methodology. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, technology and innovation policy for the future: Potentials and limits of foresight studies (pp. 83–117). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_6
45. Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379
46. Grunwald, A. (2004). Strategic knowledge for sustainable development: The need for reflexivity and learning at the interface between science and society. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1(1–2), 150–167. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2004.004619
47. Iguchi, C., Giroud, A. L. A., Zhao, S., & Zhang, S. (2025). International Business and Sustainable Development in Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for Firms and Countries. Asian Business and Management, 24(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41291-025-00297-6
48. Mumuni, S., & Mwimba, T. (2025). Africa’s economic future: harnessing the business and macroeconomic synergies for sustainable development. SN Business and Economics, 5, Article 129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-025-00901-z
49. Herman, E., & Georgescu, M. A. (2025). Can EU Countries Balance Digital Business Transformation with the Sustainable Development Goals? An Integrated Multivariate Assessment. Systems, 13(8) Article 722. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080722
50. Zhang, M., Xu, H., & Wu, J. (2025). Study of the impact of policy interventions on the sustainable development of fly ash recycling industry in western China via dynamic business model. Waste Management, 200, Article 114780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114780
51. Osinubi, T. T., Ajide, F. M., & Simatele, M. (2025). What role does digitalisation play in the entrepreneurship-sustainable development nexus in Africa? Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 11(1), Article 100500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2025.100500
52. Makasheva, R., Tussupova, L. A., Apakhayev, N. Z., Abdulaziz, B., & Khushkeldiyeva, S. (2024). Integration of digital transformation and the concept of sustainable development in small and medium-sized businesses. Rivista Di Studi Sulla Sostenibilita, 2, 27–48. https://doi.org/10.3280/RISS2024-002003
53. Zournatzidou, G. (2025). Green Finance and Sustainable Development: Investigating the Role of Greentech Business Ecosystem Through PRISMA-Driven Bibliometric Analysis. Administrative Sciences, 15(4), Article 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci15040150
54. Wonglimpiyarat, J. (2025). Achieving the United Nations sustainable development goals – innovation diffusion and business model innovations. Foresight, 27(1), 101–119. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2023-0233
55. Ásványi, K., Gendur, N., & Nemes, Z. (2025). Comparing Sustainable Development Goals integration in mission statements of Eastern and Western European business universities. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-10-2024-0758
56. Minutiello, V., García-Sánchez, I. M., & Aibar-Guzmán, B. (2024). The Latest Developments in Research on Sustainability and the Sustainable Development Goals in the Areas of Business, Management and Accounting. Administrative Sciences, 14(10), Article 254. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci14100254
57. Ordonez-Ponce, E. A., Nejati, M., & Ahmad, R. (2024). Education for sustainable development: an assessment of Australian and Canadian business schools. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 26(7), 1637–1654. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-03-2024-0173
58. Abdelfattah, M. (2025). Using Microsoft Teams Class Notebook E-Portfolios as a Reflective Tool in Education for Sustainable Development Business Writing: Learners’ Perspectives. Higher Learning Research Communications, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.18870/hlrc.v15i1.1620
59. Corazza, L., Cottafava, D., & Torchia, D. (2025). Education for sustainable development: a critical reflexive discourse on a transformative learning activity for business students. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 27(9), 20471–20491. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02335-1
60. Fagerman, A. (2025). Teaching sustainable development in business education: a three-component model. Cogent Education, 12(1), Article 2577678. https://doi.org/10.1080/2331186X.2025.2577678
61. Guthrie, C. H. (2024). Teaching systems thinking for sustainable development in business schools: A hands-on project using the online news. Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative Education, 22(4), 233–244. https://doi.org/10.1111/dsji.12324
62. Lenziardi, R., Picinini Mexas, M., Lucas, M. R., & Sa, P. (2025). Educating for the future: a value competence model for higher education professors in sustainable development and business education. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-08-2024-0529
63. Salvador, E., & Comunian, R. (2024). Special Issue of Industry & Higher Education “Cultural and creative industries and the challenge of sustainable development: Opportunities for higher education, businesses and communities” Introduction by the Guest Editors Prof Elisa Salvador and Prof Roberta Comunian. Industry and Higher Education, 38(1), 3–5. https://doi.org/10.1177/09504222231222256
64. Awamleh, F. T., Alarabiat, Y. A., & Bustami, A. N. (2024). Enhancing Sustainable Development Through International Performance Indicators: The Role of Business Intelligence Techniques. Challenges in Sustainability, 12(3), 203–218. https://doi.org/10.56578/CIS120304
65. Feng, J. (2025). Financial accounting management strategy based on business intelligence technology for sustainable development strategy. Discover Artificial Intelligence, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44163-025-00366-x
66. Morales-Sáenz, F. I., Medina-Quintero, J. M., & Reyna-Castillo, M. Á. (2024). Beyond Data Protection: Exploring the Convergence between Cybersecurity and Sustainable Development in Business. Sustainability (Switzerland), 16(14), 5884. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16145884
67. Várallyai, L., Botos, S., Bálint, L. P., Kovács, T., & Szilágyi, R. (2024). Agricultural and business digitalisation degree in achieving sustainable development goals. International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 10(3), 327–345. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSAMI.2024.139725
68. Alom, K., Rahman, M. Z., Khan, A. I., Akbar, D., Hossain, M. M., Ali, M. A., & Mallick, A. (2025). Digital finance leads women entrepreneurship and poverty mitigation for sustainable development in Bangladesh. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 14, Article 34. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-025-00471-2
69. Barua, S., Golder, U., Chowdhury, R. S., & Sharmeen, K. (2025). Implications of NFT as a sustainable fintech innovation for sustainable development and entrepreneurship. Sustainable Technology and Entrepreneurship, 4(2), Article 100099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stae.2025.100099
70. Cerchione, R., Liccardo, G., & Passaro, R. (2025). Crowdfunding business models through the lens of sustainable development: A taxonomy for backers and funders. Finance Research Letters, 78, Article 107084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107084
71. Thompson, B. S., & Rust, S. (2025). Sustainable Development of Seafood Supply Chains via Blockchain Technology: Innovation Adoption and Implementation by Businesses and Entrepreneurs. Sustainable Development, 33(4), 5661–5675. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3424
72. Viriato, V., de Carvalho, S. A. D., Santoro, B. D. L., & Bonfim, F. P. G. (2024). A Business Model for Circular Bioeconomy: Edible Mushroom Production and Its Alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Recycling, 9(4), Article 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/recycling9040068
73. Amit, S., Kafy, A. al, Rahman, M., & Ahmed, I. (2025). Youth Capability Ecosystems and Strategic Business Models: Leveraging Market Segmentation for Sustainable Development in Emerging Economies. Business Strategy and Development, 8(2), Article e70137. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsd2.70137
74. Dissanayake, S., Dhar, B. K., Weerathunga, P. R., & Wickramasinghe, M. (2025). Youth Entrepreneurship Narratives in South Asia: Digital Transformation, Green Innovation, and Sustainable Development Pathways. Sustainable Development, 34(S2), 1221-1232. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.70398
75. Grunwald, G., Kara, A., & Spillan, J. E. (2025). Segmenting and engaging business students for sustainable development: Insights into expectation management from a cross-country study. Sustainable Futures, 9, Article 100537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100537
76. Holmes, A. F. (2025). Igniting Curiosity in Business Students to Explore the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Management Teaching Review, 10(3), 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1177/23792981251340339
77. Ogbuabor, J. E., Emeka, E. T. G., & Ogbuabor, C. A. (2025). Effects of entrepreneurship and governance quality on global and regional economic performance: A pathway to sustainable development. Sustainable Development, 33(2), 2842–2863. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3267
78. Eurostat. (2025). Sustainable Development Indicators database. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/sdi/database
79. Economic Freedom of the World (EFW). (2025). Economic Freedom Ranking. https://efotw.org/economic-freedom/dataset?geozone=world&year=2023&page=dataset&min-year=2&max-year=0&filter=0
80. Love, I., & Zicchino, L. (2006). Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(2), 190-210.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Henryk Dzwigol
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
