Strategic Scenarios of the Post-War Recovery of the Aviation Transport Sustainable Development: The Case of Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2022.05.03(1)Keywords:
aviation transport, sustainable development, security dimension, strategic management, environmental strategyAbstract
The state and strategic scenarios to recover the sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine in the post-war period are studied. Research is fulfilled with the scientific justification of quantitative indicators and macro-indicators of maintaining the trajectory of sustainable development in the medium-term perspective. The starting point of strategizing is the concept of sustainable development in the safety dimension as a management construct that contains a general systemic view of the ways to transfer from the current state of the management object to the desired one and includes the stages of identification and strategizing. Identification involves an integral convolution with dynamic weighting coefficients and a formalized justification of the limits of safe existence. A new methodology is used for strategizing, which, unlike classical forecasting methods (the past determines the future), uses the principle "the future is determined by the trajectory into the future" and is based on the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory. According to the defined methodology, three strategic recovery scenarios were developed with the annual rates of growth of real aviation transport: realistic – 4.5%; optimistic – 7.2% and the scenario of entering the optimal zone of the EU countries – 10.4%. The resulting dynamics of components, indicators and macro indicators is, in fact, a strategic plan for the post-war recovery of the economy and entering the path of sustainable development. Threats are identified and institutional measures are proposed for airlines and national systems of airports and airfields, air navigation services, aviation industry, aviation education and science of Ukraine. The strategic orientations of the environmentalization of air transport of Ukraine in the post-war period and the strategic priorities of the recovery of the air transport infrastructure were formulated, and the necessity to pursue a course towards carbon neutrality was proved.
Downloads
References
Abazov, R. (2021). Engaging in the internationalization of education and SDGs: Case study on the global hub of UNAI on sustainability. E3S Web of Conferences, 307, 06001. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202130706001
Ash, T. (2022). Bright future of Ukraine. What awaits the country's economy after the end of the war. Retrieved from https://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/maybutnye-ukrajini-shcho-chekaye-na-ekonomiku-viyna-novini-ukrajini-50233046.html
Arefieva, O., Polous, O., Arefiev, S., Tytykalo, V., & Kwilinski, A. (2021). Managing sustainable development by human capital reproduction in the system of company's organizational behavior. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 628(1), 012039. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/628/1/012039
Banasik, L., Miśkiewicz, R., Cholewa-Domanagić, A., Janik, K., & Kozłowski, S. (2022). Development of Tin Metallurgy in Rwanda. In Proceedings 31st International Conference on Metallurgy and Materials (pp. 662-668). Ostrava-Zabreh, Czech Republic: TANGER Ltd. https://doi.org/10.37904/metal.2022.4439
Bogachov, S., Kwilinski, A., Miethlich, B., Bartosova, V., & Gurnak, A. (2020). Artificial Intelligence Components and Fuzzy Regulators in Entrepreneurship Development. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 8(2), 487-499. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.8.2(29)
Boston Consulting Group. (2020). Carbon Border Tax Could Jolt World Trade. Retrieved from https://image-src.bcg.com/Images/BCG-How-anEU-Carbon-Border-Tax-Could-Jolt-World-Trade-Jun-2020_tcm9- 252002.pdf
Borodin, A., Tvaronavičienė, M., Vygodchikova, I., Kulikov, A., Skuratova, M., & Shchegolevatykh, N. (2021). Improving the Development Technology of an Oil and Gas Company Using the Minimax Optimality Criterion. Energies, 14(11), 3177. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113177
Chen, Y., Kwilinski, A., Chygryn, O., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2021). The Green Competitiveness of Enterprises: Justifying the Quality Criteria of Digital Marketing Communication Channels. Sustainability, 13(24), 13679. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413679
Chygryn, O., Bilan, Y., & Kwilinski, A. (2020). Stakeholders of Green Competitiveness: Innovative Approaches for Creating Communicative System. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 3, 358-370. https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2020.3-26
Chygryn, O., Pimonenko, T., Luylyov, O., & Goncharova, A. (2018). Green bonds like the incentive instrument for cleaner production at the government and corporate levels: Experience from EU to Ukraine. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 9(7), 1443-1456. https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v9.7(31).09
Coban, H. H., Lewicki, W., Sendek-Matysiak, E., Łosiewicz, Z., Drożdż, W., & Miśkiewicz, R. (2022). Electric Vehicles and Vehicle–Grid Interaction in the Turkish Electricity System. Energies, 15(21), 8218. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15218218
Coban, H. H., Lewicki, W., Miśkiewicz, R., & Drożdż, W. (2022). The Economic Dimension of Using the Integration of Highway Sound Screens with Solar Panels in the Process of Generating Green Energy. Energies, 16(1), 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16010178
Cyfert, S., Chwiłkowska-Kubala, A., Szumowski, W., & Miśkiewicz, R. (2021). The process of developing dynamic capabilities: The conceptualization attempt and the results of empirical studies. PLoS ONE, 16(4), e0249724. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249724
Czyżewski, B., Matuszczak, A., & Miśkiewicz, R. (2019). Public Goods Versus the Farm Price-Cost Squeeze: Shaping the Sustainability of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 25(1), 82-102. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2019.7449
Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z. (2019). Building a family business brand in the context of the concept of stakeholder-oriented value. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 7(2), 37-51. https://doi.org/10.23762/FSO_VOL7_NO2_3
Dementyev, V.V., & Kwilinski, A. (2020). Institutional Component of Production Costs. Journal of Institutional Studies, 12, 100-116. https://doi.org/10.17835/2076-6297.2020.12.1.100-116
Dementyev, V., Dalevska, N., & Kwilinski, A. (2021). Institutional Determinants of Structuring the World Political and Economic Space. In Proceedings of the 37th International Business Information Management Association (IBIMA) (pp. 2187-2199). Cordoba, Spain: IBIMA.
Dickinson, P. (2022). This cannot be allowed. What else is Putin up to? Retrieved from https://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/ukrajina-na-mezhi-bankrutstva-shcho-shche-zadumav-putin-novini-ukrajini-50234541.html
Drożdż, W., & Mróz-Malik, O. (2017). Morska energetyka wiatrowa jako istotny potencjał rozwoju polskiej gospodarki morskiej. Problemy Transportu i Logistyki, 37(1), 151-159
Drożdż, W., Kinelski, G., Czarnecka, M., Wójcik-Jurkiewicz, M., Maroušková, A., & Zych, G. (2021). Determinants of Decarbonization—How to Realize Sustainable and Low Carbon Cities? Energies, 14, 2640. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092640
Drozdz, W., Marszalek-Kawa, J., Miskiewicz, R., & Szczepanska-Waszczyna, K. (2020b). Digital Economy in the Comporary World. Torun: Wydawnictwo Adam Marszalek.
Drożdż, W., Szczerba, P., & Kruszyński, D. (2020a). Issues related to the development of electromobility from the point of view of Polish utilities. Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal, 23(1), 49-64. https://doi.org/10.33223/epj/119074
Dzwigol, H. (2020). Methodological and Empirical Platform of Triangulation in Strategic Management. Academy of Strategic Management Journal, 19(4), 1-8.
Dzwigol, H. (2021). Meta-Analysis in Management and Quality Sciences. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 1, 324-335. http://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2021.1-25
Dzwigol, H., & Dzwigol-Barosz, M. (2020). Sustainable Development of the Company on the Basis of Expert Assessment of the Investment Strategy. Academy of Strategic Management Journal, 19(5), 1-7.
Dzwigol-Barosz, M., & Dzwigol, H. (2021). Managing Family Businesses in Light of Methodological Assumptions for Higher Education. E3S Web of Conferences, 307, 06003. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202130706003
Dzwigol, H. (2021). Methodological Approach in Management and Quality Sciences. E3S Web of Conferences, 307, 01002. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202130701002
Dzwigol, H., Dzwigol-Barosz, M., Miskiewicz, R., & Kwilinski, A. (2020b). Manager Competency Assessment Model in the Conditions of Industry 4.0. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(4), 2630-2644. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.7.4(5)
Dźwigol, H., Dźwigoł-Barosz, M., Zhyvko, Z., Miśkiewicz, R., & Pushak, H. (2019). Evaluation of the energy security as a component of national security of the country. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 8(3), 307–317.
Dzwigol, H., Dźwigoł–Barosz, M., & Kwilinski, A. (2020a). Formation of Global Competitive Enterprise Environment Based on Industry 4.0 Concept. International Journal of Entrepreneurship, 24(1), 1-5.
EBRD. (2022). The EBRD predicts a 20% drop in Ukraine's GDP in 2022. Retrieved from https://www.ebrd.com/news/2022/ebrd-expects-ukraines-economy-to-contract-by-nearly-a-third-in-2022-.html
Ellis, D. (2020). Developing a strategic framework of analysis for air transport management. In 9th International Conference on Air Transport (pp. 217-224). Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V. Retrieved form https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2020.11.024
Frenkel, A. A., Volkova, N. N., & Surkov, A. A. (2017). Improving the forecasting of integral indicators based on the combination of forecasts. Finance: Theory and Practice, 21(5), 118-127. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2017-21-5-118-127
Hussain, H.I., Haseeb, M., Kamarudin, F., Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z., & Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K. (2021). The role of globalization, economic growth and natural resources on the ecological footprint in Thailand: Evidence from nonlinear causal estimations. Processes, 9(7), 1103. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9071103
Interfax-Ukraine. (2022). The IMF preliminarily estimates a 35% drop in Ukraine's GDP in 2022. Retrieved from https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/815502.html
International Civil Aviation Organization South American Regional Office. (2017). Strategic Plan for the Support of Air Transport in the South American Region SAM Plan 2020‐2035. Lima, November 2017. Retrieved from https://www.icao.int/SAM/Documents/2017-RAAC15/2%20Plan%20SAM%20Eng.pdf
Kharazishvili, Y. (2017). Light and Shadow of the Economy of Ukraine: Reserves of Growth and Modernization. Economy of Ukraine, 4(665), 22-45.
Kharazishvili, Y., Bugayko, D., Lyashenko, V., Sokolovskiy, V., & Baranov, V. (2021). Strategizing for sustainable development of transport systems in the safety dimension. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 915, 012025. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/01202
Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Sukhodolia, O., Dzwigol, H., Bobro, D., & Kotowicz, J. (2021). The Systemic Approach for Estimating and Strategizing Energy Security: The Case of Ukraine. Energies, 14(8), 2126. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14082126
Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Grishnova, O., & Dzwigol, H. (2020). Social safety of society for developing countries to meet sustainable development standards: Indicators, level, strategic benchmarks (with calculations based on the case study of Ukraine). Sustainability, 12(21), 8953. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12218953
Kharazishvili, Y., Kwilinski, A., Dzwigol, H., & Dzwigol-Barosz, M. (2021b). Modelling Innovation Contribution to Economic Growth of Industrial Regions. In Conference Proceedings - VIII International Scientific Conference Determinants of Regional Development. Volume II (pp. 558-578). Pila, Poland: Stanislaw Staszic University of Applied Sciences in Piła. https://doi.org/10.14595/CP/02/035
Kim, M., Jeong, S.-Y., & Park, S. (2019). Innovation & Growth Policy and Strategy of Aviation Industry. The Korea Transport Institute: Sejong City, Korea.
Kostyrko, R., Kosova, T., Kostyrko, L., Zaitseva, L., Melnychenko, O. (2021). Ukrainian Market of Electrical Energy: Reforming, Financing, Innovative Investment, Efficiency Analysis, and Audit, Energies, 14(16), 5080. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14165080
Kotowicz, J., Węcel, D., Kwilinski, A., & Brzęczek, M. (2022). Efficiency of the power-to-gas-to-liquid-to-power system based on green methanol. Applied Energy, 314, 118933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118933
Kuzior, A., Kwilinski, A., & Hroznyi, I. (2021a). The Factorial-Reflexive Approach to Diagnosing the Executors' and Contractors' Attitude to Achieving the Objectives by Energy Supplying Companies. Energies, 14(9), 2572. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092572
Kuzior, A., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Kwilinski, A., & Krawczyk, D. (2021b). Post-Industrial Tourism as a Driver of Sustainable Development. Sustainability, 13(15), 8145. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158145
Kuzior, A., & Kwilinski, A. (2022). Cognitive Technologies and Artificial Intelligence in Social Perception. Management Systems in Production Engineering, 30(2), 109-115. https://doi.org/10.2478/mspe-2022-0014
Kuzior, A., Grebski, W., Kwilinski, A., Krawczyk, D., & Grebski, M. E. (2022), Revitalization of Post-Industrial Facilities in Economic and Socio-Cultural Perspectives—A Comparative Study between Poland and the USA. Sustainability, 14(17), 11011. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141711011
Kwilinski, A. (2019). Implementation of blockchain technology in accounting sphere. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 23(2), 1-6.
Kwilinski, A. (2018). Mechanism of modernization of industrial sphere of industrial enterprise in accordance with requirements of the information economy. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 116-128. http://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2018.4-11
Kwilinski, A., Dalevska, N., & Dementyev, V.V. (2022b). Metatheoretical Issues of the Evolution of the International Political Economy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(3), 124. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15030124
Kwilinski, A., Dielini, M., Mazuryk, O., Filippov, V., & Kitseliuk, V. (2020b). System Constructs for the Investment Security of a Country. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 10(1), 345–358.
Kwilinski, A., Litvin, V., Kamchatova, E., Polusmiak, J., & Mironova, D. (2021). Information Support of the Entrepreneurship Model Complex with the Application of Cloud Technologies. International Journal of Entrepreneurship, 25(1), 1–8.
Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Dzwigol, H., Abazov, R., & Pudryk, D. (2022a). International Migration Drivers: Economic, Environmental, Social, and Political Effects. Sustainability, 14(11), 6413. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116413
Kwiliński, A., Polcyn, J., Pająk, K., & Stępień, S. (2021). Implementation of Cognitive Technologies in the Process of Joint Project Activities: Methodological Aspect. In Conference Proceedings - VIII International Scientific Conference Determinants of Regional Development (pp. 96-126). Pila, Poland: Stanislaw Staszic University of Applied Sciences in Piła. https://doi.org/10.14595/CP/02/006
Kwilinski, A., Slatvitskaya, I., Dugar, T., Khodakivska, L., Derevyanko, B. (2020c). Main Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions in International Enterprise Activities. International Journal of Entrepreneurship, 24, 1-8.
Kwilinski, A., Zaloznova, Yu., Trushkina, N., & Rynkevych, N. (2020a). Organizational and methodological support for Ukrainian coal enterprises marketing activity improvement. E3S Web of Conferences, 168, 00031. https://doi.org/10/1051/ e3sconf/202016800031
Lilliestam, J., Patt, A., & Bersalli, G. (2021). The effect of carbon pricing on technological change for full energy decarbonization: A review of empirical ex-post evidence. WIREs Climate Change, 12(1), e681. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.681
Low Carbon Ukraine Project. (2021). A revision of Ukraine's carbon tax. Reaching Ukraine's energy and climate targets. Retrieved from https://www.lowcarbonukraine.com/wp-content/uploads/LCU_ReachingUkraines-energy-and-climate-targets.pdf
Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Kwilinski, A., & Us, Y. (2021a). The heterogeneous effect of democracy, economic and political globalisation on renewable energy. E3S Web of Conferences, 250, 03006.
Lyulyov, O., Vakulenko, I., Pimonenko, T., Kwilinski, A., Dzwigol, H., & Dzwigol-Barosz, M. (2021b). Comprehensive assessment of smart grids: Is there a universal approach? Energies, 14(12), 3497. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14123497
Miśkiewicz, R. (2018). The importance of knowledge transfer on the energy market. Polityka Energetyczna, 21(2), 49–62. https://doi.org/10.24425/122774
Miśkiewicz, R. (2019). Challenges Facing Management Practice in the Light of Industry 4.0: The Example of Poland. Virtual Economics, 2(2), 37-47. https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2019.02.02(2)
Miskiewicz, R. (2020). Efficiency of electricity production technology from post-process gas heat: Ecological, economic and social benefits. Energies, 13(22), 6106. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13226106
Miśkiewicz, R. (2021a). The Impact of Innovation and Information Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Case of the Visegrád Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14, 59. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020059
Miśkiewicz, R. (2021b). Knowledge and innovation 4.0 in today's electromobility. In Z. Makieła, M. M. Stuss, R. Borowiecki (Eds.), Sustainability, Technology and Innovation 4.0 (pp. 256-275). London, UK: Routledge.
Miskiewicz, R. (2022). Clean and Affordable Energy within Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Governance Digitalization. Energies, 15(24), 9571. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249571
Miśkiewicz, R., Matan, K., & Karnowski, J. (2022). The Role of Crypto Trading in the Economy, Renewable Energy Consumption and Ecological Degradation. Energies, 15(10), 3805. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15103805
Miśkiewicz, R., Rzepka, A., Borowiecki, R., & Olesińki, Z. (2021). Energy Efficiency in the Industry 4.0 Era: Attributes of Teal Organisations. Energies, 14(20), 6776. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14206776
Moskalenko, B., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Kwilinski, A., & Dzwigol, H. (2022). Investment Attractiveness of the Country: Social, Ecological, Economic Dimension. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 69(1-2), 80-98. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEP.2021.125192
Nawawi, M., Samsudin, H., Saputra, J., Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K., Kot, S. (2022). The Effect of Formal and Informal Regulations on Industrial Effluents and Firm Compliance Behavior in Malaysia, Production Engineering Archives, 28(2), 193-200. https://doi.org/10.30657/pea.2022.28.23
Oláh, J., Hidayat, Y. A., Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z., Hasan, M., & Popp, J. (2021). Inter-Organizational Trust on Financial Performance: Proposing Innovation as a Mediating Variable to Sustain in a Disruptive Era. Sustainability, 13(17), 9947. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179947
Ovdiienko, О., Hryhorak, M., Marchuk, V., & Bugayko, D. (2021). An assessment of the aviation industry's impact on air pollution from its emissions: Worldwide and Ukraine. Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, 9(2), 1-10.
Pereira, P., Bašić, F., Bogunovic, I., & Barcelo, D. (2022). Russian-Ukrainian war impacts the total environment. Science of The Total Environment, 837, 155865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155865
Polcyn, J., Us, Y., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., & Kwilinski, A. (2022). Factors Influencing the Renewable Energy Consumption in Selected European Countries. Energies, 15, 108. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010108
Rajiani, I., Bačík, R., Fedorko, R., Rigelský, M., & Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K. (2018). The alternative model for quality evaluation of health care facilities based on outputs of management processes. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 17(1), 194-208.
Saługa, P.W., Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K., Miśkiewicz, R., & Chład, M. (2020). Cost of equity of coal-fired power generation projects in Poland: Its importance for the management of decision-making process. Energies, 13(18), 4833. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184833
Saługa, P.W., Zamasz, K., Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z., Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K., & Malec, M. (2021). Risk-adjusted discount rate and its components for onshore wind farms at the feasibility stage. Energies, 14(20), 6840. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14206840
Shafait, Z., Khan, M.A., Sahibzada, U.F., Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z., Popp, J. (2021). An assessment of students' emotional intelligence, learning outcomes, and academic efficacy: A correlational study in higher education. PLoS ONE, 16(8), e0255428. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255428
Stuss, M. M., Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K., & Makieła, Z. J. (2019). Competences of Graduates of Higher Education Business Studies in Labor Market I (Results of Pilot Cross-Border Research Project in Poland and Slovakia). Sustainability, 11(18), 4988. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11184988
Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K., & Gatnar, S. (2022). Key Competences of Research and Development Project Managers in High Technology Sector. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 10(3), 107-130. https://doi.org/10.23762/FSO_VOL10_NO3_6
The World Bank. (2021). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021 (May). Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/35620
Tkachenko, V., Kwilinski, A., Klymchuk, M., & Tkachenko, I. (2019). The Economic-Mathematical Development of Buildings Construction Model Optimization on the Basis of Digital Economy. Management Systems in Production Engineering, 27(2), 119-123. https://doi.org/10.1515/mspe-2019-0020
Trzeciak, M., Kopec, T.P., & Kwilinski, A. (2022). Constructs of Project Programme Management Supporting Open Innovation at the Strategic Level of the Organisation. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 8(1), 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc8010058
Wróblewski, Ł., & Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z. (2018). Sustainable Consumer Behaviour in the Market of Cultural Services in Central European Countries: The Example of Poland. Sustainability, 10(11), 3856. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10113856
Vaníčková, R., & Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K. (2020). Innovation of business and marketing plan of growth strategy and competitive advantage in exhibition industry. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 21(2), 425-445. https://doi.org/10.17512/pjms.2020.21.2.30
Yang, C., Kwilinski, A., Chygryn, O., Lyulyov, O., & Pimonenko, T. (2021). The green competitiveness of enterprises: Justifying the quality criteria of digital marketing communication channels. Sustainability, 13(24), https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413679
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Yurii Kharazishvili, Aleksy Kwilinski, Dmytro Bugayko, Mariia Hryhorak, Veronika Butorina, Iryna Yashchyshyna
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
